Weather forecasts are used almost a soon at they are issued, and are connected to phenomena which users feel they understand and can see.  This makes is easy for users to change what they do in response.

Climate forecasts' statistical nature removes them from the realm of users' reality.  Those who do use such forecast must be sophisticated, both statistically and business-wise.  Thus, use of climate forecasts is very limited.

The only way to change this is for forecast producers and users to engage in a two-way conversation which results in changes on both sides.

1)  Forecast users need to learn new ways to attach value to the uncertain outcomes implied by climate forecasts.  After all, the product of the predicted probability of an event (e.g., a flood) and the cost of failure (loss of property or life), or benefit of success (mitigation of a drought) of that event gives the loss or profit, in dollars.

Forecast producers need to learn to:

2)  listen to users and understand what they do, instead of asking users that question (which users may well not know how to answer),

3)  how to speak in terms users understand,

4)  produce forecasts for variables users are familiar with, and

5)  educate users about what forecasts are, and can and can't do.

This will require an unprecedented outreach by government forecast producers to users.  RISAs and private sector entities are well-positioned to act as intermediaries.  Many already have experience working directly with users.

This will require a re-assessement of the roles currently played by "research" and "operations" at CPC to include this outreach.

If CPC is to remain relevant, it MUST find a way to engage users with products many more of them can actually use. 

For example, many aspects of health in this Nation have improved partly because we now have ways of assessing our risk of acquiring diseases, either through our lifestyles, or through inheritance.  The way this information is presented is probabilistic.  However, because individuals and doctors have been able to work together to do more appropriate testing, or encourage or make the make lifestyle changes to prevent disease, benefits are being realized.  Its been a long process, but the value of the information, and of the way it is being transformed into action by users is clear.

Climate services has a similar challenge.  Only by allowing individuals and professionals to work together more closely, with give and take on both sides, can the benefits of climate information be fully realized.