To effectively predict and prepare for the effects of global climate change on the U.S. population, infrastructure and economy, we need to take a quantum leap forward in how we deal with the issue. Those who must make climate-sensitive decisions need access to the best available climate change science information and analysis. The information must be credible, robust, unbiased, and based on research results that are broadly accepted by the climate change science community. The process for delivery of information must be tailored to the users’ needs and practices. These needs will become all the more pressing as climate change information is used in real world decisions involving the commitment of large resources and with potential liability and litigation. The user requirements will be based on very specific questions that a decision maker must address in planning for the future. NOAA can take a leading role in understanding the end user requirements as they receive queries for information and requests for certain services.

Bringing Science to Society

Unfortunately, much of climate science data is in the “science domain” today and in the hands of academics and researchers in universities and government labs. There is a need to bridge the gap and provide a systematic approach driven by user requirements to sharing climate change science research and analysis with decision makers, enabling them to make adaptation and mitigation decisions based on validated scientific data. The challenge is that the climate science information now broadly available to concerned agencies, institutions, and individuals is by and large dispersed, difficult to obtain, appears to be inconsistent from one source to another, and is often incomprehensible to all but the most knowledgeable. Moreover, the best information is rarely in a form usable by decision makers.

To meet these challenges, there is a distinct need to improve climate change data acquisition and management, climate modeling and projections with uncertainty quantification based on this data, climate change impact assessments, and interfaces with users. Gap analysis will need to be performed to determine what new data, from satellites, airborne, and ground sensors, are needed to meet end user needs. The results from a synthesis of models, data and uncertainty quantification must be reformatted to create knowledge or information that the end users can apply to make decisions and take action. This involves further integration with end-user mission-specific data on population, agriculture, land use, energy consumption, water resources, and many other inputs necessary to provide localized decision support. When implemented with a systematic approach, this will enhance NOAA Climate Service, protect and empower the general public, impart knowledge to stimulate adaptation and inspire solutions for climate mitigation and sustainable economic growth, while shaping and leveraging the nation’s climate science investments.

Roles and Responsibilities

The systematic approach outlined above should also drive the roles and responsibilities along the normally accepted roles various organizations play. And each sector has an important role to play. Continued research in the universities and national labs is needed to push the envelope and develop models and methodologies to simulate complex climate systems and enhance predictive analysis capabilities. Industry can take a leading role in systems integration and decision support delivery to stakeholders and end users so they can develop adaptation and mitigation strategies and make near term decisions that could have huge long term implications. Government agencies need to play a vital role in (a) maintaining data centers with the highest quality data and providing access to that data, (b) providing national services to end users, and the service providers such as the NOAA Climate Service, need to employ the best available data, research and decision support systems, (c) leading in the development of interfaces and data structures to be used by the community that define the standards that will be utilized, and (d) continuing to build, deploy and maintain observational platforms to provide global monitoring, and fill the data gaps wherever needed. Together, we will be able to serve national, regional, and local decision makers and their respective organizations, the private sector, and the general public in the most effective manner.

NOAA has an opportunity to take a leadership role in understanding the end user needs and then providing credible information and decision support to end users that serves their needs. Since several parties are involved with different sets of expertise, a systematic approach is essential with a coordination of data, information and systems. Delivery of “knowledge” is critical, not just turning over the data which the end users most likely won’t know what to do with.